Bitcoin futures have entered "backwardation" for the first time since the FTX collapse in 2022. Here's what that means and why it matters.

The Basics: Normally, Bitcoin futures contracts (agreements to buy Bitcoin at a future date) cost more than the current Bitcoin price. This is called "contango" and it's the standard setup.

But right now, we're seeing the opposite: futures prices are lower than today's price. This is called "backwardation," and it means traders are betting Bitcoin will be worth less in the future than it is now.

Why This Happens: Backwardation typically shows up when the market is stressed. Traders are closing leveraged positions, institutions are reducing risk, and pessimism is running high. The CME Bitcoin basis just hit -2.35%, the most negative it's been since November 2022.

The Pattern: Interestingly, this signal appeared around November 19, just two days before Bitcoin bottomed at $80,000 on November 21. Historically, backwardation has marked or come close to major market bottoms in November 2022, March 2023, August 2023, and now November 2025.

The Catch: This doesn't guarantee prices will bounce. It simply shows that traders are cautious and expect weakness. However, it does suggest much of the panic selling may have already happened—which is often when reversals occur.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin is in a zone where both risk and opportunity tend to show up together.

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This past week, our Insider's Circle nailed an A+ short setup on Solana right at the New York market open and it's a perfect example of how multiple confluences create high-probability trades.

The Setup:

At NY open, we spotted a liquidity sweep that formed a clean double top. This is classic manipulation, smart money grabbed liquidity above before reversing direction.

Once we got our 5-minute bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), we had our entry zone. Price then retraced beautifully to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (the golden pocket), giving us the perfect risk-to-reward entry.

Why This Was A+ Quality:

Here's what made this setup so clean:

The Result:

Price dropped straight down to the 2.272 extension before ranging out for the rest of the day. Textbook execution.

The Lesson: When you stack multiple technical factors at a key time window (NY open), you create setups where the market shows its hand. This is how you trade with the odds in your favor, not against them.

Want to catch these setups in real-time? Join the Insider's Circle where we break down A+ plays like this daily.

Not every great setup gets traded and this one stings a bit. While we crushed the short play earlier in the week, we passed on what turned out to be a massive long opportunity that would've netted serious gains.

The Setup We Missed:

Around Asia's open, Solana hit the Previous Day's Low (PDL) and formed a textbook double bottom. This was our first major clue that buyers were stepping in at a key support level.

Then we got our first 5-minute bullish FVG. The signal that momentum was shifting. Everything was there: support confluence at PDL, bullish structure forming, and a clear entry zone.

What Happened:

From that 125 entry, Solana rocketed to141 by Tuesday morning—a $16 move over a day and a half.

The Lesson:

PDL acting as support + double bottom + bullish FVG = high-probability long setup, especially when it forms during Asia session before the volatility of London and NY opens.

Sometimes the best trades are the ones that got away. But that's why we review our misses, so we recognize these A+ setups the next time they show up.

Takeaway: When price respects key levels like PDL and gives you confluence, trust the setup. The market was screaming "long" and we didn't listen. We won't make that mistake twice.

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Uptrend (Long): Click swing high → drag to swing low Downtrend (Short): Click swing low → drag to swing high. Yes backwards I know, I just prefer this way.

0.618 (61.8%) - The golden ratio; my primary entry zone after a pullback. This level offers the best balance between value and trend strength. You can also wait for confirmation (candlestick pattern, volume) before entering.

Secondary levels: 0.5 (50%) and 0.382 (38.2%) for better retracements

Take Profit: Extension Targets

I also match these levels by looking off to the left and seeing where a 15M FVG may be that matches up (alot of times we’ll get bounces on those) or the end of a trend may be.